History warns us that it could be closer than we think.

The Thucydides Trap

As one power begins to wane and another starts its ascent, is war always going to happen?

This is the question pondered by the ancient Greek historian Thucydides who is most famous for his tract The History of the Peloponnesian War which depicted one of the ancient world’s most famous rivalries.

The ‘trap’ that bears his name refers to the idea that competition between a rising power and a falling one will always end in armed conflict. …

With global democracy under strain, could the virus be its death knell?

Democratic Recession

It’s become common to hear that democracy is under threat across the world. The dreams of people in the early 90s that democracy would spread throughout the globe after the fall of communism, as best exemplified by the ‘end of history’ thesis by Francis Fukuyama, now seem hopelessly naïve. Instead, we have begun to see the ‘democratic recession,’ where tyrants, strongmen and dictators have arisen in countries which had previously been solid democracies.

Across the Middle East, the early ambitions of the Arab Spring have died as the region’s largest country has seen its brief experiment with democracy ended by a core of military officers. …

The Pentagon is predicting that a changing climate will leave the US military impotent.

Embattled Empire

The current incumbent in the White House may deny the facts of climate change, but his leading generals do not have that luxury. The highest people within the US military are under no illusions about what is in store for humanity should the Earth continue its current trajectory.

A report from the Pentagon, the heart of the American military establishment, has predicted that the changing climate and global warming could completely destroy the US military’s ability to operate on a global level.

The report, originally released in early 2019, is uncompromising in the language it uses. It predicts a world in which climate change and the various alterations to the natural world it will create — rising sea levels, crop failure and desertification — will leave the US unable to project its power. …

In a thirsty world, the globe’s powers are silently fighting for our most precious resource.

A Thirsty, Crowded Planet

Water has always defined the story of human civilisations. When you look at the map, it’s no coincidence that mankind’s major cities are located near rivers or other water sources.

The distinguished cultures of ancient Egypt, Babylon, or the Indus Valley all exceeded because of access to the bountiful rivers of the Nile, Tigris and Euphratus and Sarasvati.

And, just as water defined the success of an empire, the loss of it would swiftly lead to collapse. …

The pandemic will end, and its aftermath could bring waves of revolutions across the globe.

Final Push

As the West appears to be approaching the peak of the new pandemic, and some countries have begun the first tentative steps to re-open their societies, the global south is now seeing the first waves of the virus reaching their shores.

Parts of Asia, Africa and South America have begun to report a steady increasing rate of infection. Many of these nations are copying the model set by China and the West and have begun to implement full-scale lock downs to curtail the virus’ spread.

Now, a leading investment firm have released a report stating that the aftermath of the virus will herald widespread food shortages across some of the world’s most fragile states. …

The rise of tactical nukes means that nuclear war is no longer as unthinkable as it once was.

Nuclear Dance

A world in which every media story was not so intensely focused upon the COVID-19 may seem like a distant memory at the moment, yet it was only some weeks ago when the United States announced something that, had it not be drowned out by the emergence of this pandemic, could have become one of the major stories of the year.

This story was that the Pentagon had conducted a war game which simulated a nuclear exchange with Russia.

Whereas something like this would normally be kept secret for only the eyes of the US’ highest military and political leaders, the Pentagon took the unique position of being completely open about the simulation and American action taken within. …

The kings of capitalism have begun to warn about the unfairness of our economic system.

View From The Throne

The previous decade saw a notable trend emerge in its closing years. The system of global capitalism which had been unquestionably dominant since the 1990’s came under fire not just from the activists or dissidents that one would expect, but also from men who stood at the very top of the economic pyramid.

One by one, the world’s wealthiest people began to make public statements in which they raised alarm about the entrenched societal inequality that the system had created.

This debate could have been ignored if it was coming from activists or those who had failed to acquire any wealth throughout their life and could be dismissed as ignorant or envious but its coming from the very top of the capitalist pyramid. …

The US’ drone war machine is expanding at a rapid pace on a global level.

Burden of Empire

The Western public is sick of war. Close to two decades of fighting across the greater Middle East, in Afghanistan and Iraq mainly, alongside military action in Libya, Somalia and Syria have contributed to a war-weariness among the American public which is shared by nations throughout the West who have acted to assist the US in its conflicts.

This war-weariness and rising skepticism towards foreign adventure was a large part of the nationalist surge which began in the latter half of the previous decade.

However, this has also occurred at a time in history when the United States’ supremacy, and by extension Western supremacy, is under renewed challenge by a variety of different powers. This challenge has come in the form of states, such as China or Russia, or in the form of networks or guerrilla movements, such as the Islamic State. …