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Is War With China Coming?
History warns us that it could be closer than we think.
The Thucydides Trap
As one power begins to wane and another starts its ascent, is war always going to happen?
This is the question pondered by the ancient Greek historian Thucydides who is most famous for his tract The History of the Peloponnesian War which depicted one of the ancient world’s most famous rivalries.
The ‘trap’ that bears his name refers to the idea that competition between a rising power and a falling one will always end in armed conflict. The rivalry that inspired his writing was between the Greek city-states of Athens, and the rising Sparta, who found themselves locked in conflict as Sparta sought to overcome the dominance of Athens on the peninsula.
The pattern repeats throughout history. A confident rising power eventually finds itself pressing against the bounds placed upon it by the ruling empire. Eventually, as the ruling state tries to retain its power, the two forces come to blows and find themselves locked in desperate conflict.
While the weapons used and the system have changed, human psychology has remained remarkably similar. The same desire to retain power that compelled the leaders of Athens to fight against Sparta has meant that of the…
