Very good article.

If I were Putin, I would go for Option 3, which may actually prove effective.

A recent report from UK think tank RUSI suggests that Western arsenals are beginning to run dry. I think this should factor into any calculations about how long the AFU can continue to enact tactical victories against the Russians. Taken in conjunction with Russian strikes against UKRs energy infrastructure, the Russians may be able to eak out a limited victory for this round of hostilities.