Very interesting persective. The fog of war in Ukraine is making it near impossible to get an accurate summary of the gains on the ground.

I suspect that the conflict will settle into a stalemate, with the Russians embedded in Donbas and the Southern front.

Likely, the Ukrainians will be unable to remove them and Moscow will attempt to use its control of Ukraine's ports and long range attacks against inafrastructure to slowly throttle the Kyiv government and force Zellenskyy to the table.

Unfortunately, this means that Ukraine will be a gaping wound on the edge of Europe, with the expected deleterious effect on global markets and food supply.